An Analysis of the Causes of the Commercialization of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps
2024-04-25 19:06:59
It is recognized in the industry that in 2011, the commercialization of China's electric vehicle industry is far from expected. At the beginning of the year, what expectations did everyone have for the industry's performance this year? What are the actual unsatisfactory places? Where does the underlying cause of the violation occur? Xie Zicon, the author of this article, after a long period of objective observation of the industry and calm thinking, with a sharp brushstrokes, made a penetrating summary of these questions.
The year 2011, which had just come to a close, was originally a highly visible year for both the Chinese and foreign electric car industry because it was the first year for China to enter the 12th Five-Year Plan, and it was also the product of more than ten years in China's electric vehicle industry. After technology research and development, we try to enter the first year of the “commercialization demonstration and promotion stageâ€. We understand it as an important drill before the "total attack" of the commercialization of China's electric vehicle industry. Its significance has two aspects: First, it lays the foundation for the completion of the phased goal of the demonstration project for the “Ten Cities and Thousands†of electric vehicles in China in 2012; and second, it is to complete the demonstration of commercialization of the 2015 “12th Five-Year Plan†for China's electric vehicles. The overall mission is a good start.
However, it is regrettable that the China Electric Vehicle Corps, which was established by the central ministries and commissions, local governments, scientific research institutions, large-scale central enterprises, and many private enterprises, has accumulated huge resources, in the demonstration and promotion of commercialization of electric passenger cars in 2011. What is handed out is a less than ideal transcript. Specifically in the following aspects.
The first is that there is no market for the product. With the support of the government's high financial subsidy policy, the market for electric passenger vehicle products has been underperforming. Almost all of the six private electric passenger vehicle demonstration cities have made a blank. The so-called sales of electric passenger cars are mostly "care children" or companies adopt special measures, which are not the normative markets.
Followed by the Chinese car companies have no car to sell. Time-consuming (two five-year plans) 10 years, investing billions of yuan (2 billion in state funds, 8 billion in corporate matching funds) in research and development funds, China’s vehicle companies have so far failed to produce decent electric passenger car products. The only products are all the "modified models" prototype cars or small-scale trial production, the formation of a complete 10,000-class production and sales capacity of the company almost no, not to mention the support of the product after-sales service network construction.
The third is that there is no complete urban infrastructure. Whether it is the charging mode or the power-changing mode, the power grid company and other companies involved in the power supply service have not built a network of electric passenger car infrastructure in one city for two years (2010-2011). The product provides the most basic sales conditions. What is visible only is the demonstration model of large-scale charging stations and charging piles built by power grid companies in many cities. In the promotion work of Hangzhou Power Grid Company's self-innovative power exchange mode, there is little progress on the part of experts and vehicle manufacturers who hold disagreement, which has little effect.
In this regard, the broad masses of industry professionals and many media reporters have issued various questions about China’s current development strategy and promotion methods. Where did the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps go wrong? Can we complete the 2012 and 2015 China electric vehicle development goals?
The author believes that the crux of the problem lies in the fact that the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps was not ready at all and launched a blind assault! A careful analysis of the reasons for the obstruction of the demonstration of the commercialization of China's electric passenger vehicles in 2011 was mainly caused by the following misunderstandings.
Misunderstanding 1: The depth of system innovation needed for commercialization is insufficient
The main problem of the China Electric Vehicle Corps is that it does not systematically clarify the core issues of commercialization of electric vehicles. Most people just stand on the technical point of view of vehicle products and think about the work of promoting the commercialization of electric passenger cars instead of using the overall perspective of innovating a new industry to construct a complete system project in all directions. Unfortunately, there are still many people who hold a stubborn idea until now that as long as we develop vehicle products and build a certain size of charging piles and charging stations, plus government financial subsidies, we can achieve a large scale in China. The goal of commercial demonstration and promotion.
As we all know, the perspective of product technology is different from the perspective of industrial commercialization. Product technology is only a part of industrial commercialization system engineering. In other words, we did not put an emerging industry that has not yet been successfully tested in the Western developed countries from understanding the core aspects of the product market positioning, industrial system technology support, industrial financial profitability model, and implementation promotion strategy. Under the circumstances of the problem, the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps launched a full-scale assault. Therefore, it violated the principle of "knowing oneself and knowing oneself and knowing oneself from one thing and never knowing oneself from others".
Products are for the market, and products with market will have value. It is meaningless that technology is to serve products that have markets, and technologies that cannot help the products to achieve market maximization are meaningless. For this reason, the dispute between the complete vehicle and the power supply matching technology plan should be taken as the criterion, instead of measuring the interests of a certain company.
Misunderstanding #2: Emphasize Product Driven System Innovation and Ignore Energy Supply System Supporting Innovation
The core issue of the commercialization of China's electric vehicles is not just driving system innovation, but a large and complex system engineering innovation. It includes innovations in "Vehicle Product System Technology and Marketing" innovation, "Innovation in Power Battery and Energy Supply System Supporting Technology and Market Operation", "Industrial Business Model" Innovation, and "Commercial Implementation Strategy" Innovation. The four most of the lips and teeth are dependent on each other and are indispensable.
The technological innovation of vehicle products is only a part of the commercialization of the entire emerging industry, and is only one of the basic conditions for the commercialization of products. The focus of the industrialization innovation of electric vehicles lies in the integration of system technologies. The most important thing is the supporting innovation of the drive system and energy supply system.
The Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps neglected the incentives of supporting innovations in the drive system and energy supply system. It was influenced by the business model of the “home appliances†of electric vehicles advocated by the vehicle companies in western developed countries. We can also call it “socket mode†thinking. .
We should think deeply about a problem: if we only develop electric vehicle products and build a certain size of charging piles and charging stations, we can solve the problem of the continuous development of large-scale commercialization of electric passenger cars. Experienced Western teachers have long since implemented and will give us Chinese opportunities.
The year 2011, which had just come to a close, was originally a highly visible year for both the Chinese and foreign electric car industry because it was the first year for China to enter the 12th Five-Year Plan, and it was also the product of more than ten years in China's electric vehicle industry. After technology research and development, we try to enter the first year of the “commercialization demonstration and promotion stageâ€. We understand it as an important drill before the "total attack" of the commercialization of China's electric vehicle industry. Its significance has two aspects: First, it lays the foundation for the completion of the phased goal of the demonstration project for the “Ten Cities and Thousands†of electric vehicles in China in 2012; and second, it is to complete the demonstration of commercialization of the 2015 “12th Five-Year Plan†for China's electric vehicles. The overall mission is a good start.
However, it is regrettable that the China Electric Vehicle Corps, which was established by the central ministries and commissions, local governments, scientific research institutions, large-scale central enterprises, and many private enterprises, has accumulated huge resources, in the demonstration and promotion of commercialization of electric passenger cars in 2011. What is handed out is a less than ideal transcript. Specifically in the following aspects.
The first is that there is no market for the product. With the support of the government's high financial subsidy policy, the market for electric passenger vehicle products has been underperforming. Almost all of the six private electric passenger vehicle demonstration cities have made a blank. The so-called sales of electric passenger cars are mostly "care children" or companies adopt special measures, which are not the normative markets.
Followed by the Chinese car companies have no car to sell. Time-consuming (two five-year plans) 10 years, investing billions of yuan (2 billion in state funds, 8 billion in corporate matching funds) in research and development funds, China’s vehicle companies have so far failed to produce decent electric passenger car products. The only products are all the "modified models" prototype cars or small-scale trial production, the formation of a complete 10,000-class production and sales capacity of the company almost no, not to mention the support of the product after-sales service network construction.
The third is that there is no complete urban infrastructure. Whether it is the charging mode or the power-changing mode, the power grid company and other companies involved in the power supply service have not built a network of electric passenger car infrastructure in one city for two years (2010-2011). The product provides the most basic sales conditions. What is visible only is the demonstration model of large-scale charging stations and charging piles built by power grid companies in many cities. In the promotion work of Hangzhou Power Grid Company's self-innovative power exchange mode, there is little progress on the part of experts and vehicle manufacturers who hold disagreement, which has little effect.
In this regard, the broad masses of industry professionals and many media reporters have issued various questions about China’s current development strategy and promotion methods. Where did the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps go wrong? Can we complete the 2012 and 2015 China electric vehicle development goals?
The author believes that the crux of the problem lies in the fact that the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps was not ready at all and launched a blind assault! A careful analysis of the reasons for the obstruction of the demonstration of the commercialization of China's electric passenger vehicles in 2011 was mainly caused by the following misunderstandings.
Misunderstanding 1: The depth of system innovation needed for commercialization is insufficient
The main problem of the China Electric Vehicle Corps is that it does not systematically clarify the core issues of commercialization of electric vehicles. Most people just stand on the technical point of view of vehicle products and think about the work of promoting the commercialization of electric passenger cars instead of using the overall perspective of innovating a new industry to construct a complete system project in all directions. Unfortunately, there are still many people who hold a stubborn idea until now that as long as we develop vehicle products and build a certain size of charging piles and charging stations, plus government financial subsidies, we can achieve a large scale in China. The goal of commercial demonstration and promotion.
As we all know, the perspective of product technology is different from the perspective of industrial commercialization. Product technology is only a part of industrial commercialization system engineering. In other words, we did not put an emerging industry that has not yet been successfully tested in the Western developed countries from understanding the core aspects of the product market positioning, industrial system technology support, industrial financial profitability model, and implementation promotion strategy. Under the circumstances of the problem, the Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps launched a full-scale assault. Therefore, it violated the principle of "knowing oneself and knowing oneself and knowing oneself from one thing and never knowing oneself from others".
Products are for the market, and products with market will have value. It is meaningless that technology is to serve products that have markets, and technologies that cannot help the products to achieve market maximization are meaningless. For this reason, the dispute between the complete vehicle and the power supply matching technology plan should be taken as the criterion, instead of measuring the interests of a certain company.
Misunderstanding #2: Emphasize Product Driven System Innovation and Ignore Energy Supply System Supporting Innovation
The core issue of the commercialization of China's electric vehicles is not just driving system innovation, but a large and complex system engineering innovation. It includes innovations in "Vehicle Product System Technology and Marketing" innovation, "Innovation in Power Battery and Energy Supply System Supporting Technology and Market Operation", "Industrial Business Model" Innovation, and "Commercial Implementation Strategy" Innovation. The four most of the lips and teeth are dependent on each other and are indispensable.
The technological innovation of vehicle products is only a part of the commercialization of the entire emerging industry, and is only one of the basic conditions for the commercialization of products. The focus of the industrialization innovation of electric vehicles lies in the integration of system technologies. The most important thing is the supporting innovation of the drive system and energy supply system.
The Chinese Electric Vehicle Corps neglected the incentives of supporting innovations in the drive system and energy supply system. It was influenced by the business model of the “home appliances†of electric vehicles advocated by the vehicle companies in western developed countries. We can also call it “socket mode†thinking. .
We should think deeply about a problem: if we only develop electric vehicle products and build a certain size of charging piles and charging stations, we can solve the problem of the continuous development of large-scale commercialization of electric passenger cars. Experienced Western teachers have long since implemented and will give us Chinese opportunities.
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