Four hidden problems will still affect the development of China's machinery industry
2023-04-10 19:06:42
At the end of last year, people had adopted a more cautious attitude when predicting the growth rate of the machinery industry this year, and generally believed that the growth rate was about 20%. However, from the actual operating results of a year, the growth rate is far higher than people's expectations. Although the current statistics are still from January to October, according to past experience, the growth of the whole year has been fully grasped. The machinery industry will harvest another high-growth year on the basis of rapid growth for four consecutive years, and the growth rate will reach about 28%.
Sustained and rapid growth will easily ease the urgency of accelerating the transformation of economic growth patterns. At the same time, it will send misleading information to the society, further induce excessive expansion of production capacity, mask the contradiction of China's machinery industry oversupply, postpone the outbreak and intensify the future. Contradictions.
When analyzing the status quo of the machinery industry, Yu Zhen, president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, pointed out that on the one hand, the situation that the supply of high-end products is in short supply and the oversupply of low-end products has not yet been fundamentally changed. “Big but not strong†is still the main contradiction in the industrial structure of China’s machinery industry. On the other hand, we must have a full understanding of the negative impact that this year's machinery industry may have on its rapid growth. Yu Zhen believes that there are four outstanding problems in the current development of the machinery industry:
First, the main body of the industry revitalization is weak and unstable. Although the progress of a number of industry leaders is not small, but in terms of the scale and level of its achievement, it is neither big nor strong on the world stage. Coupled with the fact that foreign capital is now taking advantage of mergers and acquisitions of our country’s dominant companies, if it fails to deal with it properly, the mainstay of the industry will lose its bearings and China’s machinery industry will be permanently cured at the low end of the international industrial chain.
Second, the unbalanced growth pattern of economic growth is manifested in: Over-reliance on the growth of physical output, and the development of the industry urgently needs to break through the inertia of outgrowth; compared with its counterparts in developed countries, the modern manufacturing service industry has not developed quickly and has become our weakness and short legs. The energy consumption per unit of output and steel consumption declined slowly, especially after 2000, the unit consumption of energy consumption per unit of output decreased significantly; the investment in fixed assets grew too fast and the capacity expansion was excessive.
Third, the ability of independent innovation cannot meet the needs of structural upgrading. In the past, the product upgrading of China's machinery industry mainly relied on the introduction of technology. However, as the gap narrows, foreigners are increasingly wary of me. It is increasingly difficult to continue to rely on imported technology to upgrade products, and it is urgent to change technical support points. The point has shifted to the point of relying on independent innovation. Because the capability of independent innovation is not yet adapted to the needs of product upgrades, the competitiveness of nuclear island equipment, gas turbines, pumped storage units, and large wind turbines is very weak, and the castings and forgings required for power station castings and forgings, especially nuclear power, rely heavily on imports. The same is true for nuclear-grade pump valves and instrument control systems. Key basic components such as high-end numerical control systems and CNC machine tools, high-level low-voltage electrical appliances, tools, and dies cannot satisfy user requirements. In recent years, the mechanical and industrial processing equipment has achieved remarkable results in terms of renewal and transformation, and the conditions for research and development have not greatly improved. Due to the long-term dependence on the introduction of technology, the accumulation of experience in independent innovation and talent cultivation has lags behind.
Fourth, the bottleneck of the supply of major raw materials is becoming increasingly strong. Following the increase in steel prices for power plant equipment in 2004, the price of high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets soared again in 2005. This year has even increased the supply of copper, aluminum, nickel and other raw materials tightly, prices soaring, while energy, transportation prices are also rising, so that the upper reaches of the industry's growing constraints on the development of the machinery industry.
Sustained and rapid growth will easily ease the urgency of accelerating the transformation of economic growth patterns. At the same time, it will send misleading information to the society, further induce excessive expansion of production capacity, mask the contradiction of China's machinery industry oversupply, postpone the outbreak and intensify the future. Contradictions.
When analyzing the status quo of the machinery industry, Yu Zhen, president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, pointed out that on the one hand, the situation that the supply of high-end products is in short supply and the oversupply of low-end products has not yet been fundamentally changed. “Big but not strong†is still the main contradiction in the industrial structure of China’s machinery industry. On the other hand, we must have a full understanding of the negative impact that this year's machinery industry may have on its rapid growth. Yu Zhen believes that there are four outstanding problems in the current development of the machinery industry:
First, the main body of the industry revitalization is weak and unstable. Although the progress of a number of industry leaders is not small, but in terms of the scale and level of its achievement, it is neither big nor strong on the world stage. Coupled with the fact that foreign capital is now taking advantage of mergers and acquisitions of our country’s dominant companies, if it fails to deal with it properly, the mainstay of the industry will lose its bearings and China’s machinery industry will be permanently cured at the low end of the international industrial chain.
Second, the unbalanced growth pattern of economic growth is manifested in: Over-reliance on the growth of physical output, and the development of the industry urgently needs to break through the inertia of outgrowth; compared with its counterparts in developed countries, the modern manufacturing service industry has not developed quickly and has become our weakness and short legs. The energy consumption per unit of output and steel consumption declined slowly, especially after 2000, the unit consumption of energy consumption per unit of output decreased significantly; the investment in fixed assets grew too fast and the capacity expansion was excessive.
Third, the ability of independent innovation cannot meet the needs of structural upgrading. In the past, the product upgrading of China's machinery industry mainly relied on the introduction of technology. However, as the gap narrows, foreigners are increasingly wary of me. It is increasingly difficult to continue to rely on imported technology to upgrade products, and it is urgent to change technical support points. The point has shifted to the point of relying on independent innovation. Because the capability of independent innovation is not yet adapted to the needs of product upgrades, the competitiveness of nuclear island equipment, gas turbines, pumped storage units, and large wind turbines is very weak, and the castings and forgings required for power station castings and forgings, especially nuclear power, rely heavily on imports. The same is true for nuclear-grade pump valves and instrument control systems. Key basic components such as high-end numerical control systems and CNC machine tools, high-level low-voltage electrical appliances, tools, and dies cannot satisfy user requirements. In recent years, the mechanical and industrial processing equipment has achieved remarkable results in terms of renewal and transformation, and the conditions for research and development have not greatly improved. Due to the long-term dependence on the introduction of technology, the accumulation of experience in independent innovation and talent cultivation has lags behind.
Fourth, the bottleneck of the supply of major raw materials is becoming increasingly strong. Following the increase in steel prices for power plant equipment in 2004, the price of high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets soared again in 2005. This year has even increased the supply of copper, aluminum, nickel and other raw materials tightly, prices soaring, while energy, transportation prices are also rising, so that the upper reaches of the industry's growing constraints on the development of the machinery industry.
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